Scotland's Future
Following the resignation of Scotland First Minister & SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon, Techne assesses the impact of her decision on the future of Scotland and the UK – and what could happen next.
New Scottish independence poll: ‘No’ leads by 10
24 February 2023
Support for the Union has increased slightly over the past eight months, but polling from Techne indicates there has been no dramatic drop in support for independence in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation.
There is now a 10 point lead for ‘no’ to independence, according to Scottish voters who were questioned on Wednesday and Thursday of this week – up from eight points when the firm last asked the question at the end of June 2022.
Excluding don’t knows, the poll indicates a 55-45 advantage for ‘no’.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
The full results:
- Scottish voters only – Yes 39% (nc) / No 47% (+1) / Don’t Know 14% (-1)
- Scottish voters only, with don’t knows excluded – Yes 45% (-1) / No 55% (+1)
- All UK voters – Yes 9% (-1) / No 71% (+2) / Don’t Know 20% (-1)
“Despite the month’s dramatic changes in the politics of Scotland, there has – so far – been little change in the appetite for independence among Scottish voters. “A 55-45 advantage for the ‘no’ campaign in our poll indicates that, over eight years on from the referendum, the result today would be almost exactly the same as it was in 2014. “The challenge for the SNP, and those who support independence, has to be that if the popular Nicola Sturgeon could not move the dial, do any of her potential replacements have the capacity to do so? “The challenge for those who support the Union is that one in seven Scottish voters continue to say they are undecided, and fresh impetus from a new First Minister could have an impact. “We are entering a new phase in Scottish politics and the independence debate, and it remains to be seen what happens next.”
Techne UK questioned 1,633 people across the UK online on Wednesday 22 and Thursday 23 February. The figures are weighted and representative of the population.
Within the sample, 502 people across Scotland were questioned and the figures for ‘only Scotland’ are weighted and representative of the population of Scotland. The margin of error on this question is +/- 4.4%.
Changes are on the last Scottish independence poll conducted by Techne UK on 29-30 June 2022.
Our View
Friday 17 February 2023
“The very unexpected news yesterday that the Scottish National Party Leader Nicola Sturgeon has decided to stand down as leader of her party has very much shaken the political establishment – both in Scotland of course, but also across the rest of the United Kingdom too. “There has not been a contested leadership election for the SNP since 2004 and there is no natural successor to her as leader. “Having spent her whole leadership with one main aim – Scottish independence, I am not sure a new and untested leader could go into the next General Election asking for a mandate on independence as Sturgeon has suggested she would have. “I have been looking at the polling going on right now for our weekly Techne tracker and it seems there are already signs of a drop in SNP support with a move to voters in Scotland being uncertain. It remains to be seen what happens next – we will be watching closely. “Further to this, it seems clear to me that Nicola Sturgeon stepping down really opens up huge opportunities for other political parties – particularly Labour. “They, of course, have been looking to regain support in Scotland, and whether that happens will have a huge impact for the whole United Kingdom – both in terms of support for the Union and at the next Westminster General Election. “A new phase in politics is certainly beginning in Scotland – and its impact will be felt far beyond for many years to come.”
Techne Polling
June 2022 Scottish Independence Polling – the full data tables can be found here >>
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Scottish voters only, don’t knows excluded)
- Yes – 46%
- No – 54%
